Panel Presentation by Achin Vanaik in New York City and Boston.
United States — Relative decline, not absolute. It will remain for some time to come the front-runner economically, militarily, technologically, culturally.
— Will continue to pursue global hegemony which means, above all, dominating Eurasia from West to East including North African states around the Mediterranean.
Software — 6 new post-Cold War ideological banners for 3 population zones.
Russia — Maintain control of ‘near abroad’; enhance ME presence; cautious alliance with China.
China — BRI for a) domestic growth and job absorption; b) greater clientelism in SE Asia; c) economic neutralization of Europe; d) countering US containment.
BMD/TMD — escalating arms race with China and Russia and knock-on effects on India and Pakistan.
Nuclear Face-offs — South Asia most dangerous.
What then for proponents and movements for nuclear disarmament?
The question now posed is human survival threatened by:
3 great evils: Militarism/nuclearism
Mass poverty/raging inequalities amidst no global resource scarcity
The building of such mass connected movements is currently being derailed by another kind of anti-democratic, rightwing, authoritarian populist mobilization that is diversionary and divides along lines of ethnicity, religion, race and even gender.
Proposals for disarmament and restraint
Here the idea is to suggest proposals which can at least be used to generate public awareness about possible steps towards our ultimate goal of comprehensive disarmament, and for exerting some degree of pressure on policy-makers and shapers, opinion-makers and shapers.
Three Hopeful Possibilities
A.) North Korean de-nuclearization and US-NK normalization of diplomatic relations.
B.) If Corbyn comes to power, we can expect at the least a more leading role played by UK among the NWSs to promote regional and global restraint and disarmament as well giving new momentum to the longstanding unilateral disarmament movement in UK.
C.) Scottish independence for whatever reasons (e.g., Brexit) in the future will majorly disrupt UK’s status as a NW power.
RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs
BMD/TMD – Ballistic Missile Defence/Theatre Missile Defence systems
BRI – Belt Road Initiative
MEWMDFZ – Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone
TPNW – Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
NWFZ – Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
NFU – No First Use
PSI – Proliferation Security Initiative